Saturday, January 18, 2014

The Midseason Andre Drummond Team

The Andre Drummond Team is comprised of players whose coaches don't give them minutes for... (insert random speculation)
I came across this realization last night: an NBA coach has a LOT to think about.  I’ve never coached in an NBA game, but I’d imagine it would be difficult juggling substitutions, play calling, referee relations, game management, and player motivation.  You have to discern between the different buzzing of assistant coaches and be the final judge of what is best for your team on any given night.  And if the decision you make ends up being wrong, although it may have been heavily influenced by others, you get the blame.

That being said, sometimes coaches do things that seem to evade all formulae of logic.  As fans, we don’t get to go behind the scenes, hear what goes on in the locker room, or see how players perform in practice.  All of these are certainly factors in a coach’s decision-making process.  But we do get to see the on-court product, and it is troubling when the coaching staff apparently does not, or is extremely slow to react to it. 

The Andre Drummond team is made of players that, for whatever reason, are not getting minutes that they probably deserve.  It is named for the Detroit Pistons’ behemoth who could have won Rookie of the Year last year if it wasn’t for his important role in, instead, err….. being the captain of this team?  Despite posting ridiculous per-36 numbers of 14 Pts/13 Reb/3 Blk/ 2 Stl at only 19 years of age, Drummond played only 20 minutes a game while sitting behind the likes of Jason Maxiell.  Fans everywhere struggled to reach conclusions.  Was Maxiell a key cog in helping the team win?  No, the Pistons were pretty much lottery-bound from the get-go.  Was Maxiell a part of the team’s future?  No, he is now entrenched on the Orland Magic bench.  Lawrence Frank, Pistons’ head coach at the time, said Drummond was being benched for "things the general public may not be aware of".  Great job, Lawrence (he was promptly fired at season’s end).  Lawrence Frank may not have an NBA head coaching job anymore (or an assistant coach for that matter), but his legacy will live on through this team.

THE MIDSEASON ANDRE DRUMMOND TEAM


BRANDAN WRIGHT: PF/C, DALLAS MAVERICKS
CURRENT MPG: 19.7


Brandan Wright has become one of the under-the-radar elite finishers in the game

Brandan Wright was signed to a 2 year/ $10 million dollar deal in the offseason after a career year with the Mavericks last season.   After struggling in his early years to put on weight and survive the physical nature of the NBA game, Wright has carved himself a nice niche as one of the premiere pick-and-roll finishing big men in the league.  In 16 games so far this season, he is shooting 68% from the field and is 7th overall in Points Per Possession in pick-and-roll situations (per Synergy).   Wright has learned to utilize his length extremely well in either stopping for 8-14 foot jumpers or getting all the way to the basket.  He is agile.  He is super long.  He looks like he could chomp on leaves while hooping.  He is kind of what I think an athletic giraffe would look like playing basketball.   

Watch the variety that Wright uses to score here:



On defense, Wright has improved each year.  His length is a great weapon in shot disruption, and he is getting more comfortable using his quickness to handle guards on the perimeter and recover to the paint.  His slender frame, however, makes him a below average post up defender and mediocre rebounder. 

BOTTOM LINE: Last season, the Mavericks were 7 points better offensively and 1 point better defensively with Wright on the court per 100 possessions.  Although DeJuan Blair is a nice player, he does not compare to Wright offensively, and is an average defender at best.  Wright has never averaged more than 20 minutes a game, and, at 26 years old, he should be able to handle an uptick in action.  Unless the Mavs are playing a stud back-to-the-basket scorer that needs to be bodied up, I would like to see Wright get an extra 10 minutes of burn per game to see what he can really do. 


JAMES JOHNSON: G/F, MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
CURRENT MPG: 23.3

Johnson's defensive potential has always been there, but his offense has really "turned the corner"

When the Grizz signed James Johnson on December 16, no one really even noticed.  It was to be Johnson’s 4th NBA team in his young career, and possibly the last chance for the former 16th overall pick to salvage his career.  What he has done so far when given playing time has been pretty amazing.  The new-look (tatted up, slimmed down) Johnson is averaging 8 Pts, 5 Reb, 3 Ast, 2 Blk, 1 Stl in limited playing time.  While clearly limited as a shooter, Johnson has found a way to be a huge plus on the offensive end as a creator/finisher for the Grizz while continuing to live up to his reputation as a defensive disruptor. 

Do you see Tayshaun Prince having a game like this anytime soon?

(edit: I realize both the game clips I have shown are against the Bucks, but I promise these players have had good games against non-terrible teams as well.)

BOTTOM LINE: Memphis, despite all of its struggles, is still only 3 games back in the playoff race and now has Marc Gasol back for the stretch run.  So far this season, the Grizz are 11 points better on offense with Johnson on the floor and 2 points better defensively per 100 possessions (82games.com).  If they want to make a push at the playoffs, it is time to play Johnson a lot more.  Or, if they want a better draft pick, keep starting and playing Tayshaun Prince (who almost all of Johnson’s minutes have come at the expense of) 25 minutes a night.  The only thing Prince is possibly better at than Johnson at this point is outside shooting, and Prince is making 0.3 threes per game.  Make the move, Coach Joerger?

MICHAEL BEASLEY: SF/PF, MIAMI HEAT
CURRENT MPG:  17.2

By all accounts, Beasley has a been a team player so far this season
Supercoolbeas was looking like the annual steal of the offseason for the Miami Heat through November and early December when he averaged 12 points and 5 rebounds over a 12 game stretch.  But since a midseason hamstring injury, he has seen his minutes drop dramatically, logging only 2 minutes in last night’s win over the 76ers.  Beasley’s FG%, 3FG%, and rebounding numbers are all up dramatically from last season with the Suns, but it hasn’t been enough to earn him a consistent bench role.  With Ray Allen struggling mightily in recent times, Dwyane Wade morphing into nightly game-time decision, and Lebron James dealing with a shoulder problem, it would make sense for Erik Spoelstra to give minutes to someone who can create their own offense and give a spark to the second unit.  This season, Beasley ranks 13th in the NBA in Isolation Points Per Possession (per Synergy). 

Defense has never been Beasley’s forte, but he has received praise on that end from Spoelstra himself.  In a game on November 29 against the Raptors, Beasley was subbed in for the final five minutes “for his defense”.  Said Spoelstra after the game, “He can have a significant role for us.  That role may be limited minutes, but it can be a significant role. It could be bigger minutes. We have a whole season to figure that out.”

BOTTOM LINE: Well, the season is almost half over, and we have these numbers to look at (per 82games):

PER vs. Opponent PER at the SF position: Shane Battier- 8.2 vs 9.4
                                                                  Rashard Lewis- 8.5 vs 20.7
                                                                  Michael Beasley- 19.3 vs 10.3
PER vs. Opponent PER at the PF position: Shane Battier- 11.7 vs 21.7
                                                                  Rashard Lewis- 11.3 vs  15
                                                                  Michael Beasley- 16.7 vs 15.8

These numbers may be a little skewed because Battier and Lewis have played more minutes against opposing starters, but it is still something to think about.  Beasley is the only one that has a positive net rating at either position.  Sure, Battier has a reputation as a great team defender, ball mover, and playoff performer.  But why does Spoelstra insist on playing Rashard Lewis over Beasley?  Defense?  Certainly not, Lewis’s defense has never been good and Beasley at least has the physical tools to improve with reps.  Outside shooting/spacing?  Lewis is only making 0.4 three pointers more per game than Beasley and is also shooting 10% worse from deep. Plus, just look at how cool the guy is (in my Top 10 GIFs):


ENES KANTER: PF/C, UTAH JAZZ
CURRENT MPG: 25.4

Who doesn't want to see these guys get some minutes together?
Kanter is one of the most likeable guys in the league off the court, but that’s not the only reason he makes the Drummond team.  Ty Corbin lost trust in the Kanter/Favors frontcourt early on in the season after a rough start, mostly because of spacing issues.  But Corbin has to be kidding himself if he thinks this season wasn’t about working through the kinks with the Jazz young guys, anyway.  That slow start can also be heavily attributed to historically bad play from John Lucas III and Gordon Hayward forgetting how to shoot. 

Kanter has very advanced post moves for his age, but struggles with passing out of crowded situations.  There are some encouraging signs, however, that he can coexist with Favors in the frontcourt.  Favors excels as a pick and roll big man, per Synergy Sports, while Kanter is better in post-up situations.  These are complementary roles, and it is also probable that one or both evolve into reliable jump shooters as they progress (still aged 21 and 22 (!)).   

Kanter has a lot to learn on the defensive end, where he ranks below average in every category besides isolation.  But good news, Matt Harpring!  There is still reason to believe in the Kanter/Favors combo on this end, as well.  Last season, in 706 minutes shared on court, the duo gave up 98.3 points per possession, which would have been good enough for 3rd in the NBA (per NBA.com). 

BOTTOM LINE: It is true that Kanter has struggled mightily through stretches during the season, but he has also showed periods of greatness.  With the playoffs already out of reach, Coach Corbin should continue experimenting with the Favors/Kanter frontcourt to see if it is worth a long-term investment.  Kanter is the type of player who loses and gains confidence quickly, and the coaching staff could be missing out on huge future benefits by not giving him more leeway. 

One more thing to think about- The Burke-Burks-Hayward-Favors-Kanter combination is a +.3 points per possession so far this season (albeit in limited minutes, per 82games.com)!


 PLAYERS ALSO RECEIVING CONSIDERATION FOR THE DRUMMOND TEAM

Jordan Hill: Was not included because lineups that feature both Hill and Pau Gasol have not performed well, and he is not playing over Pau any time soon. 

Draymond Green: Draymond is one of the most underrated players in the league.  Not only is he a lockdown defender at 2 positions, but he is also one of the only ball moving players on Golden State’s roster.  A minute uptick for Draymond Green, however, would probably come at the expense of Harrison Barnes, something that I cannot advise.  I would, however, recommend that he take Mareese Speights’ minutes (someone needs to).      

I REALIZE THERE ARE ONLY 4 PLAYERS ON THE TEAM

Thanks.



1 comment:

  1. I could agree with Brendan Wright posting up minutes and numbers for the Mavs. Kid is gonna keep improving.

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