2015 Draft Class Superlatives

Courtesy: Jimmy Kimmel Live

If you are a teen and want to make a connection with an old timer, sit down with them as they crack open their dusty high school year book.  Old people love showing you their picture, friends, mean teachers, boyfriends/girlfriends, etc.  They also LOVE showing you the Superlatives page, and speculating on which predictions did/didn’t pan out.

“Oh yeah, Judy Martin, Most Likely to have a hit record…  She did have a lovely voice, but I think she started smoking after graduation.” *Grandma smiles*

“Dave Brown, Most Likely to be in jail, I couldn’t believe he hadn’t already been locked up!” *Grandma is laughing and coughing loudly*

“Mitchell Robbins, Most Likely to be the next Clark Gable.  Oh my, he was dreamy… *Grandma is actually drooling and falling out of her chair*

 Seriously though, how GOOD is the superlatives page of the yearbook page?  Everyone loves it.  It’s fun, it’s controversial.  It brings people together.

I want to bring people together (potentially at my expense after these predictions are proven ridiculous), and I think that a 2015 NBA Draft Class Superlatives list would do the trick.  So, in no particular order, here we go!

Most likely to benefit from Draymond Green’s influence: Stanley Johnson

Stanley doesn't have the mouth of Draymond, but does he have the game?

Whether NBA Front offices realize it or not, Draymond Green is always in their mind (and he is smiling).  Stanley Johnson is going to benefit from Draymond’s emergence, maybe not necessarily in draft position, but definitely in how he is utilized by his team.  Johnson will be moved all over the court and trained to defend multiple positions as a Draymond-lite.  This will stabilize his value, even if his jump shot never improves and he never learns to finish at the rim.  

Most likely to cause the next paradigm shift in NBA Strategy: Jahlil Okafor

This superlative is related to the last.  Defensive versatility is the name of the game right now in the NBA, which brings to question Okafor’s role as a franchise cornerstone.  But if Okafor turns out to be as dominant an interior finisher as some project, you’re going to have to match up with HIM before he matches up with YOU.  In other words, small ball may not be an option against Okafor-led teams. 

Most “Hey, remember me?” player: Emmanuel Mudiay

It seems like some people think Emmanuel Mudiay has regressed

At this time last year, Mudiay was the consensus #1 pick of the draft.  Since then, he has been gaining pro experience overseas but has somehow devolved into just a “good athlete” with “decent ball skills”.  What happened?  Yes, he shot 57% from the line (in only 12 games), which is concerning, but there is still a lot to like.  Surviving a year in Guangdong (a city where hardly anyone speaks English) while playing with pros has given Mudiay life experience that other draftees can’t touch.  Remember the 2014 Nike Hoops Summit, where Mudiay was by far the best playmaker on the court?  Remember when he was being called a more physical John Wall?  Definitely the most “Hey, remember me” player. 

Most likely to be underwhelming due to recency bias: (tie) Justise Winslow/Sam Dekker/Pat Connaughton

Strong NCAA Tournament runs have raised the draft stock of each of these players, but I don’t think any are as good as where they are being slotted. 

In Winslow’s case, I don’t trust his hot shooting to finish the season, and wonder if his quickness is being overrated because of playing against 4s in the tournament.  WInslow will be fine defensively because of his anticipation and motor, but his offense is limited by his inability to shoot off the dribble.

 With Dekker, a few uncharacteristic fade away threes shouldn’t launch your draft position 20 spots. 

Connaughton just has no business being drafted.  Seriously what is going on?

Most likely to be the exact same player as Thomas Robinson: Cliff Alexander

This is just a comparison I feel strongly about.  The fact that they both went to Kansas is just icing on the cake. 

Most likely to have weight issues: (tie) Cameron Payne/ Dakari Johnson

Cameron Payne needs Gainz

Cameron Payne is SKINNY.  If he can’t put on weight, I question his ability to finish in the paint on offense and navigate screens on defense.  Of course, Steph Curry had these same concerns coming out of college, so…

Dakari Johnson is NOT SKINNY.  This was highlighted by his performance in the NBA Draft Combine, which was one of the worst ever.  If you can’t get your body right for the biggest job interview of your life, can you ever? 

Most “fireworks” player: Mario Hezonja

Hezonja is going to be FUN to watch, but I am concerned there are only going to be flashes of brilliance and not consistency.  He will have to improve his mid –range game and finishing around the basket if he wants to be more than just a dunking/3 point shooting highlight reel (think JR Smith). 

Most likely to be on an NBA roster for a long time without actually being good: Tyus Jones

Ten summers down the line, I can see this conversation happening in front office:

“OK, we need to make one more signing for our 3^rd point guard spot.”

“What about Tyus Jones?  He would be good for the locker room and he’s from Minnesota, which is cool.”

“But he’s been on three teams, only had one season with a TS% above 50%, and his defense blows.  I guess he could shoot free throws late in games?

“Oh!  I just remembered he went to Duke too!  I’ll get on the phone with his agent.”

(I realize this is the 2^nd Duke player I have already ripped)

Most likely Lottery Pick to just rot on the bench their rookie year: Myles Turner 

Turner will be drafted as a project, and hopefully by teams willing to wait for his development.  He needs a year to work on his body and learn how to use his length in an NBA defensive scheme. 

Most likely Late First Rounder to rot on the bench for several years: Chris McCullough

Same as Turner except McCullough is even farther away from contributing.  

1^st rounder most likely to be out of the NBA after rookie contract: (Tie) Jerian Grant/ Delon Wright

In order for a 1^st rounder to not get a 2^nd contract, they have to be either a) A total nutcase, b) older with a perceived lack of potential, or c) injured.  I don’t think either Grant or Wright have any concerns with a) and let’s hope they don’t have any with c).  But both players are seniors and I can imagine them struggling to adjust to a more off-the-ball role in the NBA.  Sorry, guys.

Most likely to be your girl’s favorite player: Kelly Oubre

Every picture is a glamour shot for Kelly Oubre

Watch out NBA players/fans, Kelly Oubre is primed and ready to steal your girl. 

Most likely to appear on Shaqtin a Fool: Montrezl Harrell

Montrezl Harrell is a fiery, passionate player.  Here are three ways I can see him appearing on Shaqtin a Fool:

1) The shot clock is winding down and Montrezl finds himself with the ball around the three point arc.  Recognizing the opportunity to showcase perimeter skills, Montrezl stutter steps his defender and PUTS UP A JUMPER… that sails over the backboard. 

2) Montrezl catches a lob pass and attempts an emphatic dunk.  As he is pumping his chest and screaming while running back on defense, Montrezl is dismayed to find that his dunk attempt rattled out and was not converted.

3) Montrezl dunks the ball with a foul and blindly throws a celebratory punch.  The punch connects with a referee (this move is also known as The Boozer). 

Most likely to be exactly the same player they were in college: Willie Cauley-Stein

A recently uploaded draft workout video of Cauley-Stein shooting jump shots supposedly gives “evidence” that his offensive game was being held back in his three years at Kentucky.  But I still cannot get over the absolutely broken jumpers he launched in the Final Four.  For a guy that has already been through three years of college, Cauley-Stein is still being given the benefit of the doubt in terms of his untapped talent.  I don’t think we’re going to see his game expand much in the pros (which doesn’t mean he won’t be valuable).

Most likely to be a totally different player than what they were in college: Karl Anthony Towns

Towns and Cauley-Stein were teammates so this is crazy, right?  Coach Cal had Towns develop his low post game in college, but here’s the thing: I don’t think Towns likes playing down low.  He often shied away from contact and relied on touch more than strength.  In the NBA, where help defenses are much more complex, it is harder and harder to be a true low post player.  I think Towns’ NBA game will revolve around his jump shot and ability to attack off closeouts (think Al Horford). 

Most likely to be an SEC player that nobody knows because no one pays attention to the SEC outside of Kentucky: (tie) Bobby Portis/ Jarell Martin

Remember Jordan Clarkson last year? 

Player standing in the tallest room: Kristaps Porzingis

Kristaps Porzingis is the biggest mystery of the draft

To clarify, this means that Porzingis has the largest space (difference) between his floor and his ceiling.  How can a player be both so overrated and underrated at the same time?  People making Bargnani comparisons need to stop.  Porzingis is foreign and does not project as a great rebounder but that’s about where the similarities end.  People forget that Porzingis was touted first as a defensive project.  He actually likes playing defense.  Still, it remains to be seen if his ball handling and shooting will translate to the NBA (but if it does, porZINGis!)

Player standing in the shortest room: Justin Anderson

It isn’t hard to predict Anderson’s career arc.  He’s probably going to average between 6-10, maybe 12 points a game.  He’s going to play good defense.  Where’s the intrigue?  Meh.

Most likely to have their own shoe in the next couple years: D’Angelo Russell

"Bout to get paiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiid"

I mean, the man is marketable.  Seriously, if I could buy stock in there being D’Angelo Russell posters in Foot Locker windows by 2019, I’m doing it.  People are really buying into the whole “smooth guy” thing right now (Thanks, Steph).  

Most reliant on situation: Frank Kaminsky

Kaminsky’s ceiling isn’t quite as high as Porzingis’, but his floor is just as low.  The concerns are legitimate.  Will the ball handling transfer?  Is his shot release too low?  Can he play defense?  But in an NBA finals where we witnessed the need for big men to be able to both shoot and create shots for others, Kaminsky looks like a can’t miss prospect.  I think if he lands in a situation where he can be surrounded by other floor spacers, he could really thrive.  But, if he is asked to do too much, he could easily be labeled a bust.  Location, location, location. 

Most likely to end up blossoming on the Spurs: Trey Lyles

You know when your little brother is creating a player on a video game, takes way too long to decide what kind of player he wants to be, and you end up snatching the controller from him and raise all the player abilities the same amount?  That’s Trey Lyles.  He is equally good at everything, but not great at anything.  But he’s plays intelligently on the floor. He’s totally going to end up on the Spurs.

Most likely to look like Matt Barnes’ kinder younger brother: RJ Hunter

Can you see it?

Most likely to acquire haters after being drafted by good team: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Hollis-Jefferson is slated to go in the late 1^st round, most likely to a contending team.  If his team makes it to the playoffs, I could see Rondae playing a role off the bench as a scrapper and agitating defender.  I can see him getting a key loose ball, getting up and pounding his chest with a big smile.  This is the exact type of player that fans of opposing teams love to hate.  But lots of guys in history are hustlers.  Rondae sets himself apart with a little “shimmy” free throw routine.  Now THAT is a recipe for acquiring MASS haters. 

A few more rapid fire superlatives:

Most likely to win 3 Point Contest: Devin Booker (really high on him)

Most likely to win Dunk Contest: Norman Powell (but no one from this draft will)

Most likely top 10 bust: Kristaps Porzingis

Quickest to be an All Star: D’Angelo Russell (if drafted by Sixers or Knicks)

Most likely 2^nd round steals (hard because we don’t know how draft will end up): Josh Richardson/Richaun 
Holmes/Jonathan Holmes/Michael Frazier

Most likely to lead the league in technicals: Willie Cauley-Stein

Most likely to win MVP: Emmanuel Mudiay (Yep!)

Most likely to win Defensive Player of the Year: Willie Cauley-Stein

Most likely 6^th man of the year: Terry Rozier (Yep!)

Most likely to drop: Kevon Looney (To the 2nd round)