How March Madness Relates to NBA Success

I can support Charles Barkley in a lot of things.  Joking around with Ernie, Shaq, Kenny, and Chris after a Thursday night doubleheader?  Nice.  Throwing in a plug for Weight Watchers with a little bit of self deprecating humor?  I can dig it.  Challenging a 100 year-old dude to a race and then kissing him on the lips?  Yeah, turns out even that was pretty funny. But when Charles slowly begins creeping in on other parts of my life that were so superbly non-Charles...?  That's when I start to get a little annoyed.  

Which brings me to my number one gripe of the past week:  Charles Barkley has successfully infiltrated March Madness.  I didn't think it was possible, but he has done it.  Barkley is everywhere; commercials, pregame, halftime.  And just when I think I'm beginning to cope with his uninformed views of the college game, he says something like this:

“I want these kids to stay in school longer because the NBA is worse than it’s ever been,” Barkley said. “It’s not good basketball. It’s frustrating for me to watch. These kids aren’t physically or emotionally ready to come and play against grown men.”

“Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins are supposed to be top-3 draft picks,” he continued. “They didn’t have very good games — and it’s just one game — but if they’re going to struggle against Mercer and Stanford, they’re really gonna struggle against grown men.”

Barkley's comments coincide with recent talks from Adam Silver that the NBA has plans to raise the age limit another year.  As a fan of college basketball, I am not against the idea of damming up the NCAA talent pool a little more.  It is true that Jabari Parker had a tough go against Mercer (including being benched for defense in key moments).  And yes, Andrew Wiggins never looked close to comfortable against the Stanford defense. 

But I still have a hard time believing Charles really believes what he says.  Seriously, Parker and Wiggins do not belong in college basketball.  The lack of spacing, the zone defense, the 35 second shot clock; several key aspects of the college game are completely different from what they will see in the pros, and, for the most part, disadvantageous to their styles of play.  Sure, guys have left college too early in the past and flamed out.  But many, many more have improved drastically in the NBA compared to where they were in college.  What if Andre Drummond had stayed another year at UConn to watch Shabazz Napier chuck shots?  What if Derrick Rose had decided to juggle another year of school with Conference USA life instead of dedicating every day to basketball with some of the best coaches in the world?  

A troubling theory has arisen among those who believe the current NBA is "watered down".  They believe that, for example, current Anthony Bennett (drafted as a freshman) is taking the spot of an older, more seasoned version of Anthony Bennett in the NBA.  This is not true.  Were Anthony Bennett not in the NBA right now, he would not be replaced by a better version of himself.  He would, instead, be replaced by an older veteran or (more commonly) a younger player with less potential.  Can you name some fringe players in the NBA right now that might have taken Bennett's spot?  What about some players who have recently been signed to 10-day contracts?  Here's a list of some: Chris Wright, Darius Johnson-Odom, Casper Ware, Chris Babb, DJ White.  Very impressive.  Glad we have those guys in the league (said no one ever). Basically, it all comes back to whether you believe players develop better in college or the NBA.  I believe the latter, but am willing to concede that every case is different.

Money is the issue at hand here.  Everyone except for potential draftees would benefit from an age limit raise.  Owners, current players, and certainly, Adam Silver, would all stand to make a lot of money.  If you think Wiggins and Parker have hype now, what would it be like after another full college season?  I'm imagining parades on the streets of Philadelphia.  Let's just say it will be interesting to see what settlement is reached.  Here are a few speculative thoughts, if the limit were to be raised:

• How would the D-League be affected?  David Stern saw it as a place for raw players to develop their games, but will there be a need with another year of weeding out at the college level?  Or will some players jump ship early and go straight to the D-League for a year?
• Would college players have to be compensated for their extra year in school?  Would rookie scale contracts be modified?
• Would the Players' Union step in?  

We would need a time machine to know. 

"Did you say you need a time ma-"

Now, back to the struggles of Wiggins and Parker.  I thought it would be interesting to look at high draft picks of yesteryear to see if any of them had also struggled on the big stage.  I compiled the regular season and end-of-season tournament Player Efficiency Ratings (courtesy realgm.com and basketball-reference) of all draft picks from the last 8 years (the years where the freshman age limit in college has existed) that are still in the league.  Here are a lot of graphs presenting the findings: 

(Disclaimer: Admittedly, PER is a flawed statistics that favors rebounding big-men and does not do a good job of capturing defensive impact, but it was the best statistic available.)

This first graph compares the Median Season NBA PER of all players drafted after their freshman year with their PER  in either the NCAA Tournament or the NIT.  As we can see, Eric Gordon, Thaddeus Young, Deandre Jordan, and Andre Drummond all had poor postseason performances and still went on to have success in the league.  As a reference, Parker's 2014 NCAA PER was 14 and Wiggins' was 11.5.

Sorry for the overlapping names, nothing I can do

This graph shows that, as you may have guessed, overall season PER, with a correlation of 0.62, is a much stronger indicator of how a player will perform in the league, although it is not perfect (step your game up, Bennett!).  This season, Parker had a PER of 19.14 and Wiggins, 17.06.

Now that we have the graphs for freshmen, I figured it would be interesting to look at the results for all draft classes.  Here are the sophomores:

It appears that Sam Presti is able to see past postseason woes when making draft selections (see Harden and Westbrook)

Otto Porter has to be the most forgettable 3rd Pick ever

And the Juniors: 

Who else was high on Wesley Johnson after this tournament?

Steph Curry is ridiculous

And, finally, the Seniors!!

Miles Plumlee's early season success this year wins the Most Random Thing of the Season Award

I miss Brandon Roy

In recap, we can learn a few things: 

• Some NBA prospects have performed poorly in the biggest moments, even in the Seniors group.  
• The strongest predictors of NBA success is the Season PER of Freshmen and Juniors (small sample size and a lot of noise).  
• As of now, Anthony Bennett and Otto Porter stand out as huge underachievers.  Still, their data points come from very small samples and will undoubtedly improve in future years.

And now, a challenge: 

Scroll back up and look at the names on the freshmen graphs.  Now, try to pick out a few, let's say more than 10, that you can even debate have hurt the NBA by entering when they did.  

Pretty tough, isn't it?

So why the need for an age limit increase?

Now let's enjoy the Madness this weekend, and try not to be too hard on draft prospects for one bad performance.  

The Midseason Andre Drummond Team

The Andre Drummond Team is comprised of players whose coaches don't give them minutes for... (insert random speculation)

I came across this realization last night: an NBA coach has a LOT to think about.  I’ve never coached in an NBA game, but I’d imagine it would be difficult juggling substitutions, play calling, referee relations, game management, and player motivation.  You have to discern between the different buzzing of assistant coaches and be the final judge of what is best for your team on any given night.  And if the decision you make ends up being wrong, although it may have been heavily influenced by others, you get the blame.

That being said, sometimes coaches do things that seem to evade all formulae of logic.  As fans, we don’t get to go behind the scenes, hear what goes on in the locker room, or see how players perform in practice.  All of these are certainly factors in a coach’s decision-making process.  But we do get to see the on-court product, and it is troubling when the coaching staff apparently does not, or is extremely slow to react to it. 

The Andre Drummond team is made of players that, for whatever reason, are not getting minutes that they probably deserve.  It is named for the Detroit Pistons’ behemoth who could have won Rookie of the Year last year if it wasn’t for his important role in, instead, err….. being the captain of this team?  Despite posting ridiculous per-36 numbers of 14 Pts/13 Reb/3 Blk/ 2 Stl at only 19 years of age, Drummond played only 20 minutes a game while sitting behind the likes of Jason Maxiell.  Fans everywhere struggled to reach conclusions.  Was Maxiell a key cog in helping the team win?  No, the Pistons were pretty much lottery-bound from the get-go.  Was Maxiell a part of the team’s future?  No, he is now entrenched on the Orland Magic bench.  Lawrence Frank, Pistons’ head coach at the time, said Drummond was being benched for "things the general public may not be aware of".  Great job, Lawrence (he was promptly fired at season’s end).  Lawrence Frank may not have an NBA head coaching job anymore (or an assistant coach for that matter), but his legacy will live on through this team.

THE MIDSEASON ANDRE DRUMMOND TEAM

BRANDAN WRIGHT: PF/C, DALLAS MAVERICKS
CURRENT MPG: 19.7

Brandan Wright has become one of the under-the-radar elite finishers in the game

Brandan Wright was signed to a 2 year/ $10 million dollar deal in the offseason after a career year with the Mavericks last season.   After struggling in his early years to put on weight and survive the physical nature of the NBA game, Wright has carved himself a nice niche as one of the premiere pick-and-roll finishing big men in the league.  In 16 games so far this season, he is shooting 68% from the field and is 7^th overall in Points Per Possession in pick-and-roll situations (per Synergy).   Wright has learned to utilize his length extremely well in either stopping for 8-14 foot jumpers or getting all the way to the basket.  He is agile.  He is super long.  He looks like he could chomp on leaves while hooping.  He is kind of what I think an athletic giraffe would look like playing basketball.   

Watch the variety that Wright uses to score here:

On defense, Wright has improved each year.  His length is a great weapon in shot disruption, and he is getting more comfortable using his quickness to handle guards on the perimeter and recover to the paint.  His slender frame, however, makes him a below average post up defender and mediocre rebounder. 

BOTTOM LINE: Last season, the Mavericks were 7 points better offensively and 1 point better defensively with Wright on the court per 100 possessions.  Although DeJuan Blair is a nice player, he does not compare to Wright offensively, and is an average defender at best.  Wright has never averaged more than 20 minutes a game, and, at 26 years old, he should be able to handle an uptick in action.  Unless the Mavs are playing a stud back-to-the-basket scorer that needs to be bodied up, I would like to see Wright get an extra 10 minutes of burn per game to see what he can really do. 

JAMES JOHNSON: G/F, MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
CURRENT MPG: 23.3

Johnson's defensive potential has always been there, but his offense has really "turned the corner"

When the Grizz signed James Johnson on December 16, no one really even noticed.  It was to be Johnson’s 4^th NBA team in his young career, and possibly the last chance for the former 16^th overall pick to salvage his career.  What he has done so far when given playing time has been pretty amazing.  The new-look (tatted up, slimmed down) Johnson is averaging 8 Pts, 5 Reb, 3 Ast, 2 Blk, 1 Stl in limited playing time.  While clearly limited as a shooter, Johnson has found a way to be a huge plus on the offensive end as a creator/finisher for the Grizz while continuing to live up to his reputation as a defensive disruptor. 

Do you see Tayshaun Prince having a game like this anytime soon?

(edit: I realize both the game clips I have shown are against the Bucks, but I promise these players have had good games against non-terrible teams as well.)

BOTTOM LINE: Memphis, despite all of its struggles, is still only 3 games back in the playoff race and now has Marc Gasol back for the stretch run.  So far this season, the Grizz are 11 points better on offense with Johnson on the floor and 2 points better defensively per 100 possessions (82games.com).  If they want to make a push at the playoffs, it is time to play Johnson a lot more.  Or, if they want a better draft pick, keep starting and playing Tayshaun Prince (who almost all of Johnson’s minutes have come at the expense of) 25 minutes a night.  The only thing Prince is possibly better at than Johnson at this point is outside shooting, and Prince is making 0.3 threes per game.  Make the move, Coach Joerger?

MICHAEL BEASLEY: SF/PF, MIAMI HEAT
CURRENT MPG:  17.2

By all accounts, Beasley has a been a team player so far this season

Supercoolbeas was looking like the annual steal of the offseason for the Miami Heat through November and early December when he averaged 12 points and 5 rebounds over a 12 game stretch.  But since a midseason hamstring injury, he has seen his minutes drop dramatically, logging only 2 minutes in last night’s win over the 76ers.  Beasley’s FG%, 3FG%, and rebounding numbers are all up dramatically from last season with the Suns, but it hasn’t been enough to earn him a consistent bench role.  With Ray Allen struggling mightily in recent times, Dwyane Wade morphing into nightly game-time decision, and Lebron James dealing with a shoulder problem, it would make sense for Erik Spoelstra to give minutes to someone who can create their own offense and give a spark to the second unit.  This season, Beasley ranks 13^th in the NBA in Isolation Points Per Possession (per Synergy). 

Defense has never been Beasley’s forte, but he has received praise on that end from Spoelstra himself.  In a game on November 29 against the Raptors, Beasley was subbed in for the final five minutes “for his defense”.  Said Spoelstra after the game, “He can have a significant role for us.  That role may be limited minutes, but it can be a significant role. It could be bigger minutes. We have a whole season to figure that out.”

BOTTOM LINE: Well, the season is almost half over, and we have these numbers to look at (per 82games):

PER vs. Opponent PER at the SF position: Shane Battier- 8.2 vs 9.4

                                                                  Rashard Lewis- 8.5 vs 20.7

                                                                  Michael Beasley- 19.3 vs 10.3

PER vs. Opponent PER at the PF position: Shane Battier- 11.7 vs 21.7

                                                                  Rashard Lewis- 11.3 vs  15

                                                                  Michael Beasley- 16.7 vs 15.8

These numbers may be a little skewed because Battier and Lewis have played more minutes against opposing starters, but it is still something to think about.  Beasley is the only one that has a positive net rating at either position.  Sure, Battier has a reputation as a great team defender, ball mover, and playoff performer.  But why does Spoelstra insist on playing Rashard Lewis over Beasley?  Defense?  Certainly not, Lewis’s defense has never been good and Beasley at least has the physical tools to improve with reps.  Outside shooting/spacing?  Lewis is only making 0.4 three pointers more per game than Beasley and is also shooting 10% worse from deep. Plus, just look at how cool the guy is (in my Top 10 GIFs):

ENES KANTER: PF/C, UTAH JAZZ
CURRENT MPG: 25.4

Who doesn't want to see these guys get some minutes together?

Kanter is one of the most likeable guys in the league off the court, but that’s not the only reason he makes the Drummond team.  Ty Corbin lost trust in the Kanter/Favors frontcourt early on in the season after a rough start, mostly because of spacing issues.  But Corbin has to be kidding himself if he thinks this season wasn’t about working through the kinks with the Jazz young guys, anyway.  That slow start can also be heavily attributed to historically bad play from John Lucas III and Gordon Hayward forgetting how to shoot. 

Kanter has very advanced post moves for his age, but struggles with passing out of crowded situations.  There are some encouraging signs, however, that he can coexist with Favors in the frontcourt.  Favors excels as a pick and roll big man, per Synergy Sports, while Kanter is better in post-up situations.  These are complementary roles, and it is also probable that one or both evolve into reliable jump shooters as they progress (still aged 21 and 22 (!)).   

Kanter has a lot to learn on the defensive end, where he ranks below average in every category besides isolation.  But good news, Matt Harpring!  There is still reason to believe in the Kanter/Favors combo on this end, as well.  Last season, in 706 minutes shared on court, the duo gave up 98.3 points per possession, which would have been good enough for 3^rd in the NBA (per NBA.com). 

BOTTOM LINE: It is true that Kanter has struggled mightily through stretches during the season, but he has also showed periods of greatness.  With the playoffs already out of reach, Coach Corbin should continue experimenting with the Favors/Kanter frontcourt to see if it is worth a long-term investment.  Kanter is the type of player who loses and gains confidence quickly, and the coaching staff could be missing out on huge future benefits by not giving him more leeway. 

One more thing to think about- The Burke-Burks-Hayward-Favors-Kanter combination is a +.3 points per possession so far this season (albeit in limited minutes, per 82games.com)!

 PLAYERS ALSO RECEIVING CONSIDERATION FOR THE DRUMMOND TEAM

Jordan Hill: Was not included because lineups that feature both Hill and Pau Gasol have not performed well, and he is not playing over Pau any time soon. 

Draymond Green: Draymond is one of the most underrated players in the league.  Not only is he a lockdown defender at 2 positions, but he is also one of the only ball moving players on Golden State’s roster.  A minute uptick for Draymond Green, however, would probably come at the expense of Harrison Barnes, something that I cannot advise.  I would, however, recommend that he take Mareese Speights’ minutes (someone needs to).      

I REALIZE THERE ARE ONLY 4 PLAYERS ON THE TEAM

Thanks.

Good and Bad Offensive Lineups

When I was in sixth grade, my basketball coach had these words to say after a particularly disheartening first half of play:

"Just put the ball in the basket.  Don't worry about anything else.  Just take this ball (holding it high above his head) and put it inside the rim."

Well.  The NBA Season is over 1/3 completed and my coach's advice is still some of the best I've ever heard.  It is time to consider who is good at putting the ball in the bucket and who just...isn't.  Let's look at the top 5 offenses in the NBA, per NBA.com:

1.  Portland Trail Blazers (110.1 Points Per 100 Possessions)

2. Miami Heat (109.1)

3. Houston Rockets (107.4)

4. San Antonio Spurs (107)

5. Oklahoma City Thunder (106.6)

And the Bottom 5:

30. Milwaukee Bucks (96)

29. Chicago Bulls (96)

28. Charlotte Bobcats (96.2)

27. Cleveland Cavaliers (97.4)

26. Utah Jazz (97.7)

What do the top teams have in common?  The bottom teams?  Let's just say their teams' front offices will be focusing on much different things come May-June.  Although defense is very important, scoring the ball remains vital to team success in the NBA.  The Bobcats boast the 6th ranked defense, but remain under .500 because of their offensive problems (even in the rotting carcass that is the Eastern Conference).

Some teams, although they are overall very good (or bad) offensively, experience large gains or drop-offs depending on which 5 man lineup they use.  For example, let's look at the Bobcats again.  Here are a couple of 5-man offensive lineups that Coach Clifford gives a lot of minutes:

Lineup 1: Kemba Walker- Gerald Henderson- Anthony Tolliver- Josh McRoberts- Al Jefferson

Vs.

Lineup 2: Kemba Walker- Gerald Henderson- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist- Josh McRoberts- Bismack Biyombo

Which lineup would you guess knows how to put the ball in the basket?  Lineup 1 scores 115 points per 100 possessions.  Lineup 2 scores just 89.  Judging from the individual players' reputations, this is not a surprise. You probably guessed the first lineup was better offensively.  You would also be correct in assuming the second is better on  the defensive end (DRTG of 104 to 94).    

Can we explain the huge drop-off in offense from Lineup 1 to Lineup 2 for the Bobcats?  What about different lineups for all NBA teams?  

I analyzed the top 90 NBA lineups in terms of Minutes played together so far in the season.  I gathered the following data from NBA.com's player tracking data for each player in these lineups (each on a per-minute basis):

• Close Touches
• Time of Possession
• Frontcourt Touches
• Elbow Touches
• Assists
• Drives
• Catch and Shoot FGA
• 3 Point Catch and Shoot FGA
• Off Dribble FGA
• 3 Point Off Dribble FGA

I then checked to see which of these factors, sorted by position, played the biggest role in determining a high Offensive Rating.  And here are the findings:

I included the heads of players from good offenses that exemplify these characteristics.  

Some Notes/Observations/Interesting Tidbits/Debatable Topics:

• There is evidence here to suggest that a "Stretch Four", as many call it, is important, if not necessary, to a successful NBA offense.
• It is more important for a 2 Guard to drive than a Point Guard
• Small Forwards are most effective as ball movers and threats from beyond the arc.  
• Even with the demise of the traditional center, offenses still depend on their biggest player to shoot close to the basket.
• Shooting off the dribble is one of the most skilled things an offensive player can do.  Having skilled power forwards and shooting guards helps an offense.

And here are the findings for bad offenses: 

(Note: I didn't include pictures this time, because I don't want to hate on any players.  Also my Utah Jazz friends wouldn't have liked me associating Gordon Hayward's head with anything negative.)

Some Notes/Observations/Interesting Tidbits/Debatable Topics:

• The negative impact of a Shooting Guard's Catch and Shoot really jumps out here.  It speaks to how much the "Shooting Guard" has really turned into more of an "Attacking Guard".  
• As discussed before, a Small Forward is better served either catching and shooting or moving the ball rather than shooting off the dribble.
• Power Forwards help their team the most when their are stretching the defense and finishing rather than facilitating.
• Centers that try to do too much are hurting their team (or maybe the current crop of centers just isn't that talented?)
• Point Guards should not be in the paint.  

Got a comment?  Question?  Suggestion on how to improve the study?  Please comment.

(A couple of disclaimers: I also ran regressions on different combinations of these factors, and nothing was statistically significant.  It is easy to see why; there is just so much variation between players and unexplained reasons why certain lineups perform better.  So although these factors have higher correlation to offensive rating, this is in no way conclusive.  Also, some players were more represented than others in the analysis, because of playing time/coaching decisions/injuries to themselves and teammates.  For example, John Wall's factors may be over represented, as he is part of 5 of the top 80 lineups in total minutes played.)