A New Measure of Team-Player Relationship

Hi all! My short blogging hiatus is officially over.  I’m coming back just as good as I was before and never leaving again!  No Rose-ing here! 

Like, seriously? That's the joke you come back with?

For real, though!  I woke up one night in a cold sweat worrying that my blog would die in cyberspace if I never updated it again! 

*Crowd lets out another huge groan*

Speaking of Kevin Durant, though….he went absolutely bonkers on the Minnesota Timberwolves Sunday night to the tune of 32 points, 10 rebounds, and 12 assists on 14/21 shooting.  Certainly, it was one of the better performances of the young season.  But is there a way to quantify exactly how it ranks in comparison to the other dominant outings?  

You’re absolutely right if you guessed/know that there is!  The esteemed John Hollinger has developed a metric called “Game Score” that is tracked at basketball-reference.com.  The Game Score is similar the Player Efficiency Rating (PER), except that it is tracked on a per-game basis and does not account for opponent or minutes played.  The scale ends up being about the same as points per game, in the sense that a Game Score of 10 is about average and a Score of 40 Is excellent. 

Durant’s game ranks 2^nd in Game Scores this season to Chris Paul’s 42 point, 16 assist, 6 steal game against Golden State on Halloween.  Here is the complete list of the top 5 Game Scores this season:

1. Chris Paul 10/31 vs. Golden State: 12-20 FG, 2 3PTM, 16-17 FT, 15 AST, 6 STL, 42 PTS, Game Score: 42.3
2.    Kevin Durant 12/1 vs. Minnesota: 14-21 FG, 3 3PTM, 10 REB, 12 AST, 4 STL, 4 BLK, 32 PTS, Game Score: 38.3
3. Kevin Durant 11/8 @ Detroit: 9-15 FG, 2 3PTM, 17-19 FT, 8 REB, 7 AST, 3 STL, 37 PTS, Game Score: 36.9
4. Michael Carter-Williams 10/30 vs. Miami: 6-10 FG, 4 3PTM, 7 REB, 12 AST, 9 STL, 22 PTS, Game Score: 34.7
5. Andre Drummond 12/1 vs. Philadelphia: 12-15 FG, 7-18 FT, 19 REB, 6 STL, 31 PTS, Game Score: 34.6

The Thunder pulled out their game on 12/1 by a score of 112-102, much in thanks to Durant’s efforts.  But often times, a team fails to win despite a huge effort from their alpha player.  Just last night, for example, Paul George attempted to slay the Blazers with 43 points, but the Pacers still fell short. 

The different results of the Pacers and Thunder formed a huge thought bubble in my mind.   Which stars’ big performances most directly lead to their team wins?  On the other hand, which stars can afford to have an off night and their team still pulls off the victory? 

In order to answer the question, I have created a metric called “The Dependency Margin.”  It is very simple: the average Game Score of a player in wins minus the average Game Score in losses.  This helps to answer the question of how much a team depends on an above average performance from their star to get the W.  

(Note:  As a control, I scaled Game Scores by minutes played in cases of foul trouble or sitting out in blowouts.)

Let’s take a look at the results from top MVP Candidates from last season:

And by total Dependency Margin:

There are many factors that could yield these results, including complete randomness.  Here are some I feel are worth discussion: 

• ·         It makes sense that Chris Paul’s performances would lead directly to either team success or failure.  Per NBA.com’s Player Tracking data, Paul is third in the league this season in touches per game.  It is possible he was even higher last year now that low usage starter Willie Green has been replaced by JJ Redick.  Does the Dependency Margin relate directly to touches (would need to analyze further on backcourt players)?
• ·         Kevin Durant had the lowest Dependency Margin last season of the MVP candidates.  Is this a testament to the “win by the Westbrook/lose by the Westbrook” theory that maybe the point guard’s erratic play is more of an indicator of team success than its steady leader? 
• ·         James Harden has been accused of dogging it at times, standing on the perimeter and leaving his teammates on an Iso Island.  Is it possible that he takes lower percentage, lazier shots when his team is trailing and going to lose (last night’s loss withstanding)? 
• ·         Kobe Bryant’s year with his new super-team was a super-bust and critics pointed to the Mamba’s defensive interest level as a main reason.  Maybe when Kobe expends all his energy on the offensive end, he gives up more on defense, making the net gains minimal for the team.  

If your wheels are turning and something is coming out, please comment. Answers to these questions or recommend ways to improve the Dependency Margin metric will be well received!

Also, here are the results for the current season (I see you Kevin Love! albeit in only 9 team wins): 

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